With mortgage rates holding above 7% and the market closely watching the Federal Reserve’s next steps, affordability remains top of mind for many buyers. Having spent decades guiding clients through both volatile and steady markets here in the San Ramon Valley, we understand how important it is to plan ahead. A recent study highlights the value of preparing for rate shifts—suggesting that buyers should factor in a potential half-point rate increase within three months, three-quarters within six months, and a full point within a year.

For those considering a later purchase, there can be strategic advantages: historically, homes have sold for about 5% less in early Q4 compared to late Q2, with fewer competing buyers and more time for negotiation. This aligns with what we've witnessed locally—when inventory rises, as it did recently with a five-month supply, buyers gain real leverage. That means more room to negotiate on price, closing costs, discount points, or even temporary rate buydowns.

While markets are currently pricing in further Fed tightening, the longer-term objective remains clear: bringing inflation under control to eventually ease borrowing costs. Drawing on our combined 60 years of experience and deep local expertise, we continue to help buyers navigate these challenges with confidence and clarity.

With over four decades of experience in California real estate, I've seen the market's many cycles—and the current data points to a welcome period of steadier growth. Home prices across the state are projected to rise modestly by about 3% to 4% annually through 2028. This means we're moving away from the dramatic price swings of past years and settling into a more predictable pattern. Inventory is also trending upward, with roughly 156,300 active listings now on the market, giving buyers greater choice and reducing the pressure to make snap decisions. However, affordability remains a significant challenge: only about 18% of California households currently qualify for a typical mortgage, down from 31%. As a result, entry-level homes continue to draw strong competition. Most homes are still selling at nearly 100% of their asking price, and 30-year fixed rates are holding steady near 6%, with expectations for that range to continue. In major urban centers like Los Angeles County, it may take until after 2028 to return to earlier sales volumes, but overall, California’s market is settling into a more stable rhythm. Having served on the boards of both the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors, I’m committed to guiding clients through these evolving conditions with a steady hand and deep market knowledge.

Over the past three months ending mid-Q3, we've seen seller concessions reach a remarkable new high—about 45% of US home sales included some form of concession, the highest mid-Q3 figure since at least 2020. This is up from approximately 43% a year ago, reflecting a shift in market dynamics as increased inventory and lighter competition have given buyers more negotiating power. Concessions have taken many forms, from assistance with repairs to closing cost credits and mortgage-rate buydowns, broadening the ways buyers can reduce their overall purchase costs. It's clear that sellers are now more frequently offering incentives beyond simple price reductions, which is reshaping negotiations and allowing for more flexible transaction structures. Nationally, nearly 16% of homes sold in mid-Q3 combined a price cut with a concession—another strategic option for buyers seeking to lower their entry costs. With decades of experience navigating changing markets, we understand how these trends can impact your next transaction and are committed to ensuring our clients benefit from every opportunity that today’s market presents.

This autumn, we’re seeing a notable shift in the real estate landscape: the national median listing price per square foot dipped about 2% year-over-year in mid-Q3, marking ten consecutive months of annual declines. After a period of rapid appreciation, sellers are now recalibrating their expectations, making thoughtful price adjustments as we head into the fall market. With mortgage rates elevated and economic uncertainty on many buyers’ minds, it’s no surprise that home shoppers are moving more deliberately—taking the time to assess each option carefully and weigh every financing detail. Throughout our 60 years of experience in real estate here in the San Ramon Valley, we’ve witnessed firsthand how market cycles shape both strategy and opportunity. This season, a growing housing supply is giving pre-approved buyers a valuable chance to compare properties, negotiate terms, and revisit neighborhoods that may have previously seemed out of reach. For those who value experience and deep market insight, these evolving conditions signal a rare moment to make decisions with both clarity and confidence.

Navigating today’s new construction market requires a sharp eye for more than just headline prices. Early in Q3 2026, 53% of new single-family home sales in the US closed under $400K—up from 50% the previous year. The median landed at $393.8K, but with the average at $508.8K, it’s clear that luxury sales, while fewer, still have an outsized influence. Builders are responding to affordability by offering more entry-level, smaller homes, and the $300K–$399.9K price range now accounts for about 34% of early-Q3 sales, up from 28% in late Q2. Meanwhile, mid-tier homes lost ground, and the high-end ($1M+) actually gained share.

But a home’s sticker price only tells part of the story. As we’ve learned over decades helping clients make smart moves in all market cycles, it’s critical to look deeper: compare price per square foot, lot size, HOA dues, property taxes, insurance, finishes, incentives, appraisal support, and cash required at closing. With supply of new homes staying elevated and affordability pressure top of mind, builders are likely to keep expanding sub-$400K options nationwide. Experience and careful attention to these details make all the difference in finding the right fit.